Holiday shopping season has been a smashing hit.
We found Buffalo and Josh Allen to be profitable last week, along with the Rams (+7.5) taking the Ravens into OT before losing on a punt-return TD (but LA covered!).
Our player prop, Texans QB CJ Stroud under 226.5 passing yards also hit.
This week we’ll go high and low, with a three-team teaser as our main selection.
See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
The big three betting lines:
Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets
Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders
Chiefs -7.5 at Patriots
(per DraftKings)
We’ve assembled a tasty plus-money three-team teaser, fading the revenge factor while considering one particular facet of the weekend weather.
First, we are teasing the Jets’ number to a whopping +17.5. It’s not because we believe in a Zach Wilson renaissance; rather, it’s that we don’t believe the Dolphins are dramatically better than they showed in Monday night’s upset at the hands of the Tennessee Titans.
Add the weather factor: It’s going to be windy in Miami. Deep throws to Miami speedsters might not be readily available, and the Jets would like to control the clock – similar to the Titans’ scheme.
Next up, the Los Angeles Rams. We can’t quit them. As their collective health improves, so, too, does their record. In another must-win game, LA can’t afford to play carelessly against the wobbly Commanders – but we’ll tease ourselves a little cushion just to be sure.
Finally, we already jumped off the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon and can see others doing the same. The “KC will figure it out” crowd is thinning, and Sunday’s opponent, the Patriots, have nothing to lose (except a prime draft position).
The Chiefs don’t appear to have the hammer anymore. We think the talented Patriots defense can keep this close enough to cover, and hope that Bailey Zappe doesn’t throw a couple of pick-6s.
The bet, a three-team teaser parlay (+105 at DraftKings):
Jets +17.5
Rams +3.5
Patriots +14.5
THEY SAID IT
“It’s tough man. It’s real tough, and all we can do is bounce back and just try to go out there and give everything we have. We’re playing a tough, tough team this next week that plays really good defense.”
– Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the critical Kadarius Toney offside penalty that helped doom KC last week.
BONUS COMBO
Falcons at Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Falcons -3, total 34 (FanDuel).
The one feels too easy.
The Falcons need the victory to continue chasing the NFC South title, while the Panthers are in experiment mode under interim head coach Chris Tabor.
The quarterback matchup, Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder vs. Carolina’s Bryce Young, is a mismatch. Momentum is going the Falcons’ way.
Ridder threw for 347 yards last week while Young hit only 13 of his 36 pass attempts for 137 yards.
The forecast has rain and some wind, so while Ridder has some scrambling ability and a stronger arm, Young will be challenged again.
Atlanta receivers Drake London (10 catches) and Kyle Pitts (a touchdown reception!) are finding their form.
The play: Tease Falcons down to -2.5 (-148 at FanDuel).
PROP CORNER
Rachaad White, the talented Tampa Bay running back, had success last week in a 29-25 win over Atlanta, and has posted rushing totals of 100, 81 and 102 yards over the past three games.
The Bucs are on the road for the second consecutive week, this time at Green Bay, and face an angry group of Packers.
There isn’t much fear from the Packers regarding QB Baker Mayfield, so there should be added focus on the ground game.
The Bucs’ rushing success recently can be seen as a bit of a mirage, too, as they are better than only two NFL teams in rush success rate and were 24th in EPA per rush entering Week 15.
White is due for regression and, after 45 carries the past two games, he’s likely to see fewer carries as well. The number was 81.5 early Thursday but had been bet down to 80.5 by Thursday afternoon.
Prop play: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White under 80.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM, FanDuel).
– Field Level Media
