SAN DIEGO — Forever in the shadow of their neighbors to the north, the San Diego Padres are all grown up and can make it two National League Division Series victories over the Los Angeles Dodgers in three seasons when the teams play Game 4 on Wednesday.
The Dodgers had won the regular-season series against the Padres 13 years in a row until this season, when San Diego had an 8-5 advantage. San Diego now leads the best-of-five NLDS 2-1 entering Game 4 at San Diego on Wednesday.
Here are five keys to victory for the first elimination game of the series, with Game 5 set for Friday in Los Angeles, if necessary.
LEAN INTO PITCHING STRENGTHS
Replacing a reigning Cy Young Award winner is a no-win situation, but the Padres made it happen when Blake Snell departed and Dylan Cease arrived. Cease won’t win the award, but he might have done one better by guiding the Padres back into the playoffs. He went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA, threw a no-hitter in July and made consecutive scoreless starts in September. However, when he gets the ball in Game 4, he will be out to rectify a clunker in Game 1, when he gave up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. In the regular season, he held Los Angeles to a 3.38 ERA in two starts.
The pitching-rich Dodgers have dealt with so many injuries to their starters that the best member of their rotation when the season ended was Jack Flaherty, who didn’t make his debut with the club until early August after a trade-deadline deal. The Dodgers will try to cover Game 4 with a clear pitching strength: the bullpen. Rookie right-hander Landon Knack is available to pick up multiple innings. The Los Angeles relief corps was crucial to the team’s Game 1 win, yielding just two hits over six scoreless innings.
TOP GUNS
There are stars aplenty at the top of each lineup, although it is the Padres who are extracting the most out of their higher-profile players of late. Dodgers pitchers figure to be careful with Fernando Tatis Jr., as he hit three home runs in the past two games and is 10-for-18 with four total homers in the playoffs. Manny Machado likes being a Dodgers foil, and he has hit safely in each game of the series, but he tweaked a calf in his last at-bat of Game 3. Jurickson Profar had his best season in his 11th year and at age 31. He has just four singles through five games this postseason, but he could be poised for a breakthrough.
DEFENSE CAN’T REST
The Padres turned highlight defensive plays from Tatis, Profar and Luis Arraez into the inspiration that launched their 10-2 victory in Game 2. The Dodgers crumbled on defense in the second inning of Game 3, when first baseman Freddie Freeman hit Machado with a throw that opened the door for a six-run rally. Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas tried to eliminate the middleman on a double-play attempt in the same inning and didn’t get either runner. Adding to the issue, Rojas aggravated a nagging groin injury on the play and left the game an inning later.
A 50-50 PROPOSITION
With Freeman struggling at the top of the order while Max Muncy and Will Smith have been unable to deliver toward the bottom, production will have to be carried by superstar Shohei Ohtani, who is in his first career playoff series. The Dodgers got a three-run home run from Ohtani in Game 1 and earned a 7-5 victory. He has gone 1-for-8 over the next two games with four strikeouts. The Dodgers are struggling to produce sustained rallies, and they need Ohtani’s power to make runs happen.
HOME COOKING
A handful of Dodgers fans tried to enter the proceedings in Game 2 by throwing baseballs and trash on the field. The ploy backfired when the Padres gathered in the dugout to refocus during a 12-minute delay, then reeled off six runs and four homers over the final two innings of their Sunday victory. Padres fans pulled no such antics in Game 3 when a Petco Park record crowd of 47,744 was in attendance. “It was a great atmosphere in Petco tonight,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said after Game 3. “The crowd was phenomenal. Clearly I thought it was a difference-maker in part of what we were doing tonight. And we felt them, so that was great.”
–Doug Padilla, Field Level Media
