Stakes are off-the-charts when No. 8 Tennessee (9-2, 5-2 Southeastern Conference) heads three hours west to face Vanderbilt (6-5, 3-4) in Nashville, Tenn., in the annual in-state rivalry game.
The Vols scored a 56-0 pasting of UTEP last Saturday, but the best part of their week centered around scoreboard watching.
Tennessee, ranked 11th in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings, counted three teams ranked higher in the Top 25 — Indiana (fifth in last week’s rankings), Alabama (seventh) and Ole Miss (ninth) all lose — to open the path for the Vols to climb.
The Vols moved up four spots in Tuesday’s rankings, all but guaranteed a playoff berth with a win over Vanderbilt, in a game in which they’re 11-point favorites.
But a history lesson will help the Vols understand the minefield that is SEC road games this season.
Alabama and Ole Miss were double-digit road favorites at Oklahoma and Florida, respectively, and boarded their planes home with losses and a heaping helping of humble pie.
The Commodores have already won three times as double-digit underdogs — Virginia Tech, Alabama, at Kentucky — and also pulled an upset as a 7 1/2-point underdog at Auburn.
The Commodores can clinch their first winning season since 2013 with a victory on Saturday, one that would have a defining depth to Vandy in a momentous season under coach Clark Lea, a fullback for the Commodores in 2002-04. The Vols won all three games against Vandy when Lea suited up.
“The unique thing about this game is that it’s extremely personal to me, because I grew up in this city, I grew up following the program, I played in this program — as did (defensive line coach) Jovan Haye, as did some of our other staff members,” Lea said.
Tempo is a tug of war each side wants to gain control of in the first quarter.
The Vols average 74.1 plays per game, while Vanderbilt averages 61.0. The Vols’ defense is on the field for 65.7 plays while Vanderbilt’s averages 61.3 snaps.
That’s a difference of 17.5 snaps between the teams. Lea has been clear in talks with his team and beyond that he believes controlling tempo will be critical Saturday.
“For us offensively with where our program is right now, possession is the No. 1 priority,” Lea said. “We want to maintain possession of the ball, we want to extend drives, and that means multiple first downs and being able to flip the field and play a field-position game. So what we can’t have is three-and-outs and pre-snap penalties that set us back, which happened twice against LSU.”
Vanderbilt has turned it over just six times, which ranks second in the country. It has also excelled on special teams, where it ranks first in the country according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings.
The Commodores’ plan also includes getting everything they can from dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, who’s been playing at less that 100% for weeks.
Pavia has 2,029 yards passing, 16 touchdowns and three interceptions and rushed 165 times for 671 yards and six scores this season.
Points and yards will be tough to come by against the Vols, who rank fourth in the country in scoring defense (13.09) and sixth in total defense (284.3).
“We have to be at our best on Saturday,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said on Monday. “You can look at how (Vanderbilt has) performed throughout the course of the season, how they’ve played at home, statistically what they’re doing in all three phases. You’ve got to understand you’re going to get their best and their best is really good.”
The Vols’ talented defensive line, led by Walter Camp player of the year semifinalist James Pearce Jr., will make containing Pavia a priority. Vanderbilt’s last two opponents, LSU and South Carolina, got constant pressure on Pavia even if the sack totals didn’t show it.
Tennessee’s offensive game plan will be no secret: play fast and run Dylan Sampson (231 carries, 1,307 yards, 22 touchdowns) often. Sampson has rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the Vols’ eight games vs. Power 4 opponents, and registered 92 yards rushing against Oklahoma.
Heupel is 3-0 vs. Lea in the series, winning those games 45-21 (2021) 56-0 (2022) and 48-24 (2023).
–Field Level Media
