Week 5 of the NFL season concludes with the New Orleans Saints taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead on “Monday Night Football.” These teams last played in Week 15 of the 2020 season, a game the Chiefs won 32-29.
Of course, both teams have changed quite a bit since then, especially the Saints. Sean Payton was still the Saints’ head coach and Drew Brees their quarterback. Current coach Dennis Allen is 2-2 against the Chiefs in his career, while quarterback Derek Carr is 3-14.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Kansas City opened as an eight-point favorite, which is unsurprising as they are undefeated and playing at home against a visiting Saints team reeling from back-to-back losses. The line has since moved to -5.5.
When these teams last met, Patrick Mahomes was still playing on his rookie contract, Carr was in his first season with the Raiders, and Allen was in his sixth as the Saints’ defensive coordinator. Mahomes completed 26 of 47 passes against Allen’s defense for 254 yards and three touchdowns.
If this game were in Week 3, right after back-to-back 40-point games by the Saints offense, the line probably would not have opened with such a large spread. Injuries had already started to take a toll on the Chiefs offense. Could the Saints have been the favorite in that scenario?
No, as long as Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs will never be a home underdog.
But those Saints are not the ones taking the field Monday night, and the public does not seem too eager to get behind New Orleans in this game. According to an industry average, 88 percent of moneyline bets are on the Chiefs and 72 percent of the handle.
However, BetMGM has reported that 63 percent of their point spread tickets and 64 percent of the handle is on the Saints.
PROP PICKS
–Travis Kelce, O/U 5.5 Receptions at +100/-130 (FanDuel): If you look at his production over the first four weeks of the season, betting the UNDER appears to be the way to go. Kelce had four, three and five targets in Weeks 1-3, then nine in Week 4 with seven catches. But with Rashee Rice and the backfield decimated by injuries, Mahomes is bound to lean on his best and most experienced weapon early and often.
–Xavier Worthy, O/U/ 2.5 Rushing Yards at -120/-110: Chiefs coach Andy Reid has never been afraid to get creative with his play calls. With all the injuries Kansas City is dealing with, it would not be shocking to see him call the speedy rookie receiver to take a couple of handoffs.
Worthy has had at least one carry in three of four games this season. We like him to get at least one in this game. With his speed, he’ll outrun the defense for at least 3 yards
KEY STATS
Carr has not enjoyed much success against the Chiefs during his career. During his time with the Raiders, he faced the Chiefs 17 times, winning three, including one victory in Kansas City during the 2020 season. In those games, he averaged 242.4 yards per game and completed 62.5 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns to 17 interceptions.
THE NEWS
Injuries are an unfortunate part of life in the NFL, making how well a team navigates them crucial to making a season as successful as possible. Both the Saints and Chiefs are testaments to that harsh reality as they prepare for Monday’s matchup.
The Saints will be without Taysom Hill for the second game in a row, but managing his loss is not as challenging as those on the offensive line. Center Erik McCoy is on IR with a groin injury, and the guy stepping in for him, Shane Lemieux is out again with an ankle injury.
New Orleans is also having issues with the interior of the line. Right guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) will be out for the second week in a row, and there is a good chance left guard Lucas Patrick (ankle) could sit as well. That leaves the Saints with the tackles, rookie Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning, as the only Week 1 starters on the offensive line heading into tonight’s game. Fuaga has been dealing with knee and back injuries but should play.
The Saints are not alone with their injury woes. Kansas City has had skill position players dropping like flies all season.
Marquise Brown has yet to play after getting injured during the preseason. Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the season on the PUP list. Isiah Pacheco has been out since suffering a fibula injury in Week 2. Rashee Rice is out with a knee injury and it’s still not clear how much time he will miss.
Many of the Chiefs who do suit up will not necessarily be healthy. Kareem Hunt has been on the injury report with a shoulder issue, as has Mecole Hardman for his knee.
INJURY REPORT
Along with the players mentioned above, the Chiefs have seen defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (triceps), defensive end Mike Danna (calf) and linebacker Nick Bolton on the injury report. All three were listed as full participants for Saturday’s practice. Hunt and Hardman were also listed as full participants.
The Saints’ list is a bit longer. Along with Hill, Ruiz and Lemieux, defensive end Payton Turner (knee) and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (hand) are ruled out. Patrick did not practice Saturday and is listed as questionable. Fuaga was limited in practice all week but will not carry an injury designation into the game.
Several additional players were on the injury report this week but were full participants in Saturday’s practice and do not have an injury designation for tonight’s game.
PREDICTION
The Saints at +5.5 have been a popular choice, largely because many believe the injury woes will finally catch up with the Chiefs.
Mahomes still has a healthy Kelce, so the Chiefs offense will be fine. But the Saints’ banged-up offensive line will struggle against a solid Kansas City defensive front. It will be another relatively low-scoring game for the Chiefs offense, but it will be even more so for the Saints.
Chiefs 17, Saints 7
–Travis Pulver, Field Level Media
