Three out of four teams on the NCAA Tournament top line seem set as of Saturday morning: Houston, Purdue and defending champion UConn.
That’s with the caveat, of course, that these schools complete their run to their respective conference tournament titles.
Tennessee’s awful start Friday — and subsequent double-digit loss — against Mississippi State likely kicked the Volunteers to a 2-seed, opening the door for North Carolina to position itself among the No. 1 group.
Arizona fumbled its chance in Las Vegas Friday night, falling to Oregon in a Pac-12 tournament semifinal and likely is destined for a seed no better than No. 2.
When the NCAA Tournament arrives next week, Houston will be a deserving favorite, and difficult to bet against, but value lies in a few blue bloods and outsiders.
The Favorites
As of Saturday morning, the futures odds for the NCAA Tournament title looked like this at DraftKings:
UConn +450
Houston +500
Purdue +750
North Carolina +1300
Tennessee +1600
Arizona +1600
Auburn +2000
Marquette +2200
Kentucky +2200
Iowa State +2200
We have three options for the best “favorites” to back.
The leading investment opportunity could very well be Houston. Even at Scottie Scheffler-in-a-major odds of +500, we believe this carries value.
The standard tourney angle — defense and guards — puts Houston head and shoulders above the top several teams, and coach Kelvin Sampson won’t be satisfied with a performance until his players are cutting down the nets on April 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
Texas Tech shot its way into relevance — but that came in the first half, after which the Cougars led only 32-29 in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Tournament.
Houston turned it up, and, with guards Jamal Shead (12 points, 10 assists, stifling defense) and LJ Cryer (20 points including six 3-pointers) doing their thing, dispatched the Red Raiders with very little respect, 82-59. Texas Tech finished with 15 made field goals on 45 attempts.
A long shot, if you will, among the top 10 to 12 teams is the Volunteers, whose odds might become even longer as Selection Sunday dawns.
Think about the postgame discussion in that locker room after losing 73-56 to Mississippi State in one Southeastern Conference tournament quarterfinal. The Volunteers should be ready to go from the opening whistle the next time they hit the court.
The Vols are the fifth choice among several bookmakers as of Saturday morning, including DraftKings (+1600).
It’s likely those odds could shrink after the brackets are announced because Tennessee should be the strongest of all the No. 2 seeds and, theoretically, placed in a region with the weakest of the No. 1 seeds.
The Volunteers, at that price, are a “buy” to win it all, and worth a close look to emerge from their region unscathed.
Iowa State is a poor man’s Houston, with great momentum and a suffocating defense. The Cyclones pasted Baylor 76-62 in the other Big 12 semifinal, holding the Bears to 39 percent shooting Friday, including 5-for-24 from beyond the arc.
Iowa State is on a roll, already grabbing a No. 2 seed, per several experts’ calculations. A Big 12 tournament title — the Cyclones face Houston Saturday — coupled with a North Carolina loss to North Carolina State in the Atlantic Coast Conference tourney final might push them to the top line as a No. 1 seed.
The Outsiders
Florida is no longer a secret, rolling to another SEC tournament victory Friday and seeing its win-the-NCAA-Tournament odds shrink to +5000.
Not enough long-shot value left here. Good team, though, and we wouldn’t blame you for getting behind the Gators at that number.
How about a live long shot?
For a team that reached the NCAA Tournament’s final game last season and is sitting among ESPN’s bracketology leaders at a 5-seed as of Saturday, San Diego State sure isn’t drawing much respect from the books.
The Aztecs knocked out a ranked Utah State team with another big effort from leader Jaedon LeDee, whose 22 points was an average day’s work (he scores 21.0 points per game) and helped San Diego State to 50 second-half points in winning a Mountain West tournament semifinal, 86-70.
This feels like a 40-minutes-of-hell group to face in the postseason, and at +8000, should find a slice of your “long-shot bets” budget.
Did we mention Mississippi State? Yeah, the Bulldogs took apart Tennessee and take on Auburn on Saturday, with the winner heading to the SEC tournament title game.
Already slotted as a No. 8 or 9 seed, Mississippi State would enter the NCAA Tournament as one of those, “Oh boy, you don’t wanna play them right now” teams.
And at a price of +10000, well, who wouldn’t want to turn $10 into $1,000?
The guys doing the incessant pregame, halftime and postgame talking call it “madness,” so, why bet against the spectacular happening?
–Field Level Media
